The AFC is a top-heavy conference with several legit contenders, but it falls off sharply with a handful of rebuilding squads that could be selecting in the top 10 of the 2027 NFL Draft.
The AFC East has two clear leaders in New England and Buffalo, with the Jets and Dolphins in rebuild mode. The AFC South is an amalgam of questions — could the Titans turn around swiftly under Robert Saleh? Are the Colts destined to continue floundering? Did the Texans do enough to bolster the O-line and get C.J. Stroud back on track? Are the Jags a one-hit wonder? The AFC North underwent extreme change, with the Bengals the only club returning its head coach. The AFC West appears the strength of the conference from top to bottom, with the Broncos, Chargers, and Chiefs — assuming Patrick Mahomes is healthy — all having a legit belief they can compete for a Super Bowl.
We could quibble over which division is the tightest-knit, but with what we know on paper, in June, the West still projects as the most competitive.
Denver Broncos
The case for Denver winning the division: The Broncos are coming off their first AFC West title since their five-season dominance ended in 2015. With Bo Nix returning healthy and continuing to develop, Denver has a chance to make it back-to-back.
Nix showed mettle in tight games, leading the Broncos to a record 12 comeback wins in 2025. The quarterback proved an ideal point guard for Sean Payton, spreading the ball around, and throwing with accuracy on the move. He should be even more potent in Year 3 with the addition of receiver Jaylen Waddle. The acquisition of the former Dolphins first-rounder filled the Broncos’ biggest need. Waddle can win against zone or man coverage and provides a run-after-catch threat. Paired with Courtland Sutton, Nix has a top-notch duo that will create mismatches. J.K. Dobbins, returning from injury, should also get the running game back on track, which waned after he went down. The offense should avoid the lulls that plagued it a year ago.
The Broncos defense remains elite with one of the most complete starting units in the NFL. Denver led the NFL with 68 sacks in 2025, and edge rusher Nik Bonitto continues to surge. The pairing of Bonitto and interior defender Zach Allen can wreak havoc on offenses. The secondary remains one of the best in the NFL, led by stud corner Patrick Surtain II. The trio of Surtain, Ja’Quan McMillian and Riley Moss proved it could smother offenses to the point that 2025 first-rounder Jahdae Barron was a rotational player. With Barron expected to get more run this year, the secondary could be even more studly.
With Payton at the helm, the Broncos still have room to grow after swiping the division title. The Super Bowl-winning coach can keep them on pace.
The case against Denver: We saw what happened when Nix was out. The offense floundered in the playoff loss to New England. If Nix suffers a setback or is knocked out for a significant stretch, the Broncos will struggle to maintain their grip on the AFC West. You could say the same for nearly every team in the league, but the drop-off from Nix to Jarrett Stidham is significant enough for Denver to plummet in a stiff division if the starter misses time.
While the Broncos boast a sensational starting 22, depth is a concern. The loss of John Franklin-Myers in the middle, coupled with Jonathan Cooper’s off-field concerns this offseason, could put pressure on the depth up front.
Offensive coordinator Davis Webb quickly became a hot coaching candidate this offseason, but, having spent his three-year coaching career on Payton’s staff, he has never called plays. The head coach’s willingness to hand off play-calling duties to Webb underscores the faith the Broncos have in the 31-year-old. However, what happens if things go sideways during a tough opening slate, which includes a Week 1 trip to Kansas City and then five consecutive games against 2025 playoff teams? Would Payton yank back the play-calling, creating some instability on offense?
The Broncos ran away with the AFC West last season thanks to their ability to win close games, but the schedule gets tougher for the first-place team. Denver doesn’t have a gimme game until it faces Arizona in Week 7. If Payton’s crew regresses in tight tilts, it’ll struggle to keep its grip on the division.
Kansas City Chiefs
The case for Kansas City winning the division: The Chiefs sunk to their worst record of the Andy Reid era, ending their streak of consecutive division titles at nine. The season was plagued by injuries and close losses. The most significant was, of course, Patrick Mahomes suffering a season-ending knee injury in Week 15.
Mahomes remains hopeful about returning for Week 1. If he doesn’t miss any more time, it would put the Chiefs in the running to regain their stranglehold on the division. The pairing of Reid and Mahomes is as dominant as any in the league. Mahomes remains the best QB in the division and is capable of flipping results by himself.
After years of relying on Mahomes and the passing attack to move the ball, RB Kenneth Walker III was K.C.’s most significant addition in free agency. He provides explosiveness from the ground game, something the Chiefs simply haven’t had for years. Walker proved he can churn out yards and produce chunk gains in Seattle. He’s expected to play a massive role in 2026. An improved ground game will make Mahomes even more potent than he was when defenses could solely key on the pass attack.
Kansas City addressed its need up front on defense, too, adding first-round DT Peter Woods and second-round edge rusher R Mason Thomas. The youngsters should play a key role in bolstering the pass rush, which relied too much on Chris Jones and George Karlaftis over the past two years. While the losses of corners Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson and safety Bryan Cook produce questions on the back end, first-rounder Mansoor Delane and free-agent signees Alohi Gilman and Kader Kohou should fill the hole. If he can stay healthy, L’Jarius Sneed’s return would be a boon as well. I trust defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to get the most out of the youngsters and newcomers to cover over any losses.
Reid and Spags are among the best at what they do. Any holes on the roster can be covered by coaching. Last year, seven of the Chiefs’ eight losses with Mahomes under center were by one score. With the QB projected to return healthy and an easier schedule, Kansas City has the makings of a return to power.
The case against Kansas City: From the moment the NFL released the regular-season schedule, with the Chiefs prominently featured in prime-time tilts to open the campaign, it seemed a strong possibility that Mahomes would be good to go in Week 1. But what if he suffers a setback? Or, as others have experienced when returning from a knee injury, what if he’s simply not himself the entire season? No one questions Mahomes’ work ethic or drive. Both are legendary, but the reality is that the body responds differently, particularly as we creep past 30. If Mahomes is anything short of his jaw-dropping self for the bulk of the regular season, K.C. will have issues leapfrogging back to the top of the division.
With the Chiefs focusing on defense early in the draft, there remain questions at wideout, where K.C. has struggled to get consistency the past several seasons. Can Xavier Worthy finally live up to his first-round billing? Will Rashee Rice stay on the field? Is there enough depth in the passing attack, particularly with Travis Kelce beginning to show his age? If the running game doesn’t prove to be a significant upgrade, the offense could once again be a slog to watch.
On defense, the Chiefs have been able to plug-and-play secondary defenders under Spags. I assume the additions, including Delane, will slide right in without missing a beat. Assumptions can come back to bite, though, especially at a volatile position like corner. If the youngsters on D struggle, it could be another long season.