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\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u7684\u201c\u5723\u5a74\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n \u76f8\u4fe1\u5927\u5bb6\u5728\u5730\u7406\u8bfe\u672c\u6216\u65b0\u95fb\u8d44\u8baf\u4e2d\uff0c\u6216\u591a\u6216\u5c11\u90fd\u542c\u8fc7\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u3002\u8fd9\u91cc\u6211\u4eec\u5148\u7b80\u5355\u590d\u4e60\u4e00\u4e0b\u8fd9\u79cd\u6c14\u5019\u5f02\u5e38\u73b0\u8c61\u3002<\/p>\n \u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa(El Ni\u00f1o)\u6e90\u81ea\u897f\u73ed\u7259\u8bed\uff0c\u610f\u4e3a\u201c\u5723\u5a74\u201d\u3002\u51e0\u767e\u5e74\u524d\uff0c\u5357\u7f8e\u6d32\u79d8\u9c81\u548c\u5384\u74dc\u591a\u5c14\u7684\u6e14\u6c11\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u6bcf\u9694\u51e0\u5e74\uff0c\u5f53\u5723\u8bde\u8282\u6765\u4e34\u65f6\uff0c\u4e1c\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u6d77\u57df\u7684\u6d77\u6c34\u5c31\u4f1a\u5f02\u5e38\u5347\u6e29\u3002\u800c\u6d77\u6c34\u4e00\u6696\uff0c\u6e14\u6c11\u8d56\u4ee5\u751f\u5b58\u7684\u9c7c\u7fa4\u5c31\u6d88\u5931\u5f97\u65e0\u5f71\u65e0\u8e2a\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u6e14\u4e1a\u5927\u5e45\u51cf\u4ea7\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u628a\u8fd9\u79cd\u5728\u5723\u8bde\u8282\u524d\u540e\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u5f02\u5e38\u6696\u6d41\u73b0\u8c61\u79f0\u4e3a\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u3002<\/p>\n 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\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u53d7\u67d0\u4e9b\u5927\u6c14\u73b0\u8c61(\u5982\u9a6c\u767b-\u6731\u5229\u5b89\u632f\u8361\u6216\u897f\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u7684\u897f\u98ce\u7206\u53d1)\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u8d64\u9053\u4fe1\u98ce\u6709\u65f6\u4f1a\u7a81\u7136\u51cf\u5f31\u3002\u6b64\u65f6\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u4e1c\u897f\u4e24\u4fa7\u5b58\u5728\u9ad8\u5ea6\u5dee\uff0c\u897f\u8fb9\u7684\u6696\u6c34\u5c31\u50cf\u676f\u5b50\u503e\u659c\u5012\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u6c34\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u5f00\u59cb\u6d69\u6d69\u8361\u8361\u5730\u5411\u4e1c\u56de\u6d41\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u4e1c\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u7684\u6d77\u6c34\u6e29\u5ea6\u98d9\u5347\uff0c\u5e76\u4f7f\u5f97\u7a7a\u6c14\u5bf9\u6d41\u52a0\u5267\uff0c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u524a\u5f31\u4fe1\u98ce\u3002<\/p>\n \u8fd9\u5c31\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6076\u6027\u5faa\u73af\uff1a\u6d77\u6c34\u8d8a\u6696\uff0c\u4fe1\u98ce\u8d8a\u5f31\uff1b\u4fe1\u98ce\u8d8a\u5f31\uff0c\u6d77\u6c34\u8d8a\u6696\u3002\u4fe1\u98ce\u6700\u521d\u7684\u5fae\u5c0f\u6270\u52a8\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u6307\u6570\u7ea7\u653e\u5927\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u5bfc\u81f4\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u7684\u6d77\u6c34\u8868\u5c42\u6e29\u5ea6\u4e1c\u90e8\u6301\u7eed\u504f\u9ad8\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u8d64\u9053\u4e2d\u4e1c\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u6d77\u6c34\u8868\u5c42\u6e29\u5ea6\u6301\u7eed\u5f02\u5e38\u504f\u9ad8\u3001\u4ece\u800c\u5f71\u54cd\u5927\u6c14\u73af\u6d41\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u3002<\/p>\n \u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u6076\u6027\u5faa\u73af\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6c38\u8fdc\u6301\u7eed\u3002\u5728\u6696\u6c34\u5411\u4e1c\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u6d77\u6d0b\u4e5f\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u4e00\u79cd\u5411\u897f\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u5b83\u78b0\u5230\u897f\u8fb9\u754c\u540e\u4f1a\u53cd\u5c04\u56de\u6765\uff0c\u518d\u5411\u4e1c\u4f20\u3002\u5f53\u8fd9\u7c7b\u6ce2\u52a8\u62b5\u8fbe\u4e1c\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u5927\u6c14\u6761\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5c31\u4f1a\u9010\u6e10\u8870\u51cf\uff0c\u6709\u65f6\u751a\u81f3\u4f1a\u8d70\u5411\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u6781\u7aef\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u62c9\u5c3c\u5a1c(La Ni\u00f1a)\u3002<\/p>\n \u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u3001\u62c9\u5c3c\u5a1c\u548c\u4e2d\u6027\u72b6\u6001\u5f80\u5f80\u5728 2\uff5e7 \u5e74\u5468\u671f\u4e2d\u4ea4\u66ff\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u6784\u6210\u4e86\u5730\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u6700\u5f3a\u7684\u5e74\u9645\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u5927\u6c14\u5b66\u5bb6\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa-\u5357\u65b9\u6d9b\u52a8(ENSO)\u3002<\/p>\n \u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\uff0c\u771f\u7684\u8981\u6765\u4e86\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n \u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5982\u4f55\u624d\u80fd\u5224\u65ad\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u662f\u5426\u5230\u6765\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n \u5728\u73b0\u4ee3\u6c14\u8c61\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u76ef\u7740\u4e00\u5757\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3aNino 3.4 \u533a(\u897f\u7ecf 120\u00b0\u81f3 170\u00b0\uff0c\u5357\u5317\u7eac 5\u00b0\u4e4b\u95f4)\u7684\u5173\u952e\u6d77\u57df\u3002<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \u8d64\u9053\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u4e0a\u6d77\u9762\u6e29\u5ea6(SST)\u76d1\u6d4b\u533a\u57df\u7684\u5212\u5206\uff0c\u5206\u4e3a4\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u7684Nino\u6d77\u533a\u3002Nino 3.4\u533a(\u4e2d\u95f4\u7684\u7c97\u9ed1\u6846\u533a\u57df)\u6a2a\u8de8\u4e86Nino 3\u533a\u548cNino 4\u533a\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u533a\u57df\u3002\u8be5\u6d77\u533a\u7684\u6d77\u6e29\u5f02\u5e38\u901a\u5e38\u88ab\u6c14\u8c61\u673a\u6784\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5224\u65ad\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u548c\u62c9\u5c3c\u5a1c\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6700\u6838\u5fc3\u6307\u6807\u3002\u56fe\u7247\u6765\u6e90\uff1aNOAA<\/p>\n \u5982\u679cNino 3.4 \u533a\u7684\u6d77\u8868\u6e29\u5ea6\u8ddd\u5e73\u8d85\u8fc7 0.5\u2103\uff0c\u6c14\u8c61\u5b66\u4e0a\u5c31\u4f1a\u5224\u5b9a\u8fdb\u5165\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u72b6\u6001\uff1b\u5f53\u8fd9\u4e00\u72b6\u6001\u8fde\u7eed\u7ef4\u6301\u8db3\u591f\u957f\u7684\u65f6\u95f4(\u901a\u5e38\u662f 5 \u4e2a\u6708)\uff0c\u5b83\u5c31\u4f1a\u88ab\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u4e00\u6b21\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\u6d77\u6e29\u7684\u504f\u79bb\u7a0b\u5ea6\u662f\u8bc4\u4f30\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5f3a\u5ea6\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6807\u51c6\u3002<\/p>\n \u6700\u65b0\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u7684\u5347\u6e29\u8d8b\u52bf\u5df2\u7ecf\u975e\u5e38\u660e\u663e\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n \u4f5c\u4e3a\u5224\u65ad\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u6307\u6807\uff0cNino 3.4 \u533a\u7684\u6e29\u5ea6\u5f02\u5e38\u6307\u6570\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u8d85\u8fc7+0.5\u2103\uff1b<\/p>\n Nino 1+2\u533a\u7684\u6d77\u6e29\u5f02\u5e38\u5df2\u9ad8\u8fbe+1.25\u2103 \u81f3+1.5\u2103\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u81ea 2 \u6708\u521d\u4ee5\u6765\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u4e0d\u65ad\u589e\u5f3a\u3002<\/p>\n Nino 4 \u533a\u5df2\u7a33\u6b65\u5347\u81f3+0.8\u2103 \u5de6\u53f3\u7684\u9ad8\u70b9\uff0c\u6574\u4f53\u5448\u660e\u786e\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002<\/p>\n \u968f\u7740\u76ee\u524d\u8d64\u9053\u4e2d\u4e1c\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u6d77\u6e29\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u5728\u5373\u5c06\u5230\u6765\u7684 5 \u6708\uff0cNino 3.4 \u533a\u7684\u6e29\u5ea6\u504f\u5dee\u5c06\u6b63\u5f0f\u6ee1\u8db3\u7edf\u8ba1\u6807\u51c6\uff0c\u8fdb\u5165\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u72b6\u6001\u51e0\u4e4e\u5df2\u6210\u5b9a\u5c40\u3002<\/p>\n \u5927\u6c14\u5c42\u7684\u53d8\u6570\u66f4\u662f\u63a8\u52a8\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u8d8b\u52bf\u30024 \u6708\u521d\uff0c\u8d64\u9053\u897f\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u731b\u70c8\u7684\u897f\u98ce\u7206\u53d1\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u76f4\u63a5\u50ac\u751f\u4e86\u5357\u534a\u7403\u7684\u65cb\u98ce\u201c\u8fc8\u62c9\u201d\u548c\u5317\u534a\u7403\u7684\u53f0\u98ce\u201c\u68ee\u62c9\u514b\u201d\u3002\u8fd9\u573a\u5927\u98ce\u6fc0\u8d77\u4e86\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u6d77\u6d0b\u5f00\u5c14\u6587\u6ce2\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u6696\u6c34\u5c06\u5728\u7ea6\u4e24\u4e2a\u6708\u540e\u62b5\u8fbe\u4e1c\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\uff0c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u89e6\u53d1\u524d\u6587\u63d0\u53ca\u7684\u6d77\u6c34\u6696\u5316\u7684\u201c\u6076\u6027\u5faa\u73af\u201d\uff0c\u52a0\u901f\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u5230\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n \u57fa\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5f3a\u70c8\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u5305\u62ec ECMWF\u3001NOAA\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u6c14\u8c61\u5c40\u5728\u5185\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u4e3b\u8981\u6c14\u5019\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2d\u5fc3\u5747\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u79cb\u51ac\u5b63 Nino 3.4 \u533a\u6307\u6570\u6709 85%\u4ee5\u4e0a\u6982\u7387\u6301\u7eed\u9ad8\u4e8e 1.0\u2103\uff0c\u4e14\u6709\u8d85\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5cf0\u503c\u5c06\u8fbe 2.0\u2103 \u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002\u56fd\u9645\u5171\u8bc6\u666e\u904d\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u6709\u6781\u5927\u6982\u7387\u53d1\u751f\u4e00\u6b21\u4e2d\u7b49\u81f3\u5f3a\u7ea7\u522b\u7684\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002<\/p>\n \u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u7684\u590d\u6742\u5f71\u54cd<\/strong><\/p>\n \u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u867d\u7136\u53d1\u6e90\u4e8e\u8d64\u9053\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u5374\u80fd\u91cd\u6784\u5168\u7403\u5927\u6c14\u73af\u6d41\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u4e00\u79cd\u7279\u6b8a\u7684\u9065\u76f8\u5173\u4f5c\u7528\u4f20\u64ad\u81f3\u5168\u7403\u5404\u5730\u3002<\/p>\n 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