It’s the dog days of guessing season with the start of real football still months away, so I’m turning my attention to dark horses in the MVP race. The conversation must be dominated by one position if we’re going to be realistic. A quarterback has won the award in 18 of the last 20 seasons, including each of the last 13.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Five more notes for context before we dive in, since they informed the crafting of this list:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In an effort to stay true to the spirit of this exercise in identifying dark-horses, I am not including any of the players who are among the top 10 in DraftKings’ MVP odds as of 11 a.m. ET on Tuesday, June 9. That means Allen (+550), Jackson (+650), Mahomes (+1000),\u00a0Justin Herbert\u00a0(+1000),\u00a0Joe Burrow\u00a0(+1000),\u00a0Drake Maye\u00a0(+1100),\u00a0Dak Prescott\u00a0(+1300), Stafford (+1400),\u00a0Caleb Williams\u00a0(+1400) and\u00a0Jordan Love\u00a0(+1500) are not eligible for inclusion here. I’m also not including a defensive player or receiver here because it feels like too high a mountain to climb in today’s NFL.\u00a0Myles Garrett\u00a0broke the\u00a0sack record last season\u00a0and didn’t receive a single MVP vote.\u00a0Ja\u2019Marr Chase\u00a0won the\u00a0receiving triple crown\u00a0in 2024 and finished eighth in the MVP voting, with no first-place votes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I tried to lean into plausible but not absurd<\/em> as I put the list together. This is not a ranking of front-runners, after all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Super Bowl odds provided by DraftKings are as of 11 a.m. ET on Tuesday, June 9.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n Rank 8<\/p>\n\n\n\n Bijan Robinson<\/p>\n\n\n\n Atlanta Falcons \u00b7 RB \u00b7 +10000<\/p>\n\n\n\n This is as close to implausible as I\u2019m willing to get, and that\u2019s not a knock on Robinson.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It would take historic production and a surprisingly successful season for the Falcons to make Robinson a leading MVP contender, but I can see the path for him if I squint. Robinson was a first-team All-Pro after leading the league in scrimmage yards last season (2,298), but his team wasn\u2019t very good (8-9) and he didn\u2019t even lead Atlanta in rushing touchdowns. That title went to backup\u00a0Tyler Allgeier, who departed in free agency, so perhaps there will be more goal-line opportunities for Robinson in the first year of the Kevin Stefanski era.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n There\u2019s a decent chance the arm strength-challenged\u00a0Tua Tagovailoa\u00a0will be starting at QB for the Falcons this season, which means Robinson might face stacked boxes more often than he did last season, when he ran 42 times against them (28th most). If — and it\u2019s a massive if — no QBs emerge as the clear-cut MVP favorites by mid-December, maybe a door opens for Robinson to pull off a rare feat. He would still need a record-breaking season that fuels Atlanta\u2019s first trip to the playoffs in nearly a decade, but he did come within 212 yards of setting the single-season scrimmage yards record in 2025, and there’s no dominant team in the NFC South. So, Robinson gets the nod over electric Lions RB\u00a0Jahmyr Gibbs\u00a0for the one spot on this list devoted to a non-QB, since Gibbs and his teammate,\u00a0Jared Goff, might split votes if the Lions drop the hammer on the rest of the league in 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Rank8<\/p>\n\n\n\n Kyler Murray<\/p>\n\n\n\n Minnesota Vikings \u00b7 QB \u00b7 +4000<\/p>\n\n\n\n We saw what Kevin O\u2019Connell did with a reclamation project two years ago, when he flipped the career arc of\u00a0Sam Darnold\u00a0by helping him become a Pro Bowl QB (and earn a few points in the MVP voting) in his lone season with Minnesota. Now I\u2019m fascinated to see what the QB guru can do with Murray, who\u2019s looking for the O\u2019Connell bump after cratering in Arizona. He still has to beat out 2024 first-round pick\u00a0J.J. McCarthy\u00a0for the starting job, but if Murray\u2019s able to tap back into the dual-threat ability that earned him consecutive Pro Bowl trips a few years ago (2020-2021), it shouldn\u2019t be much of a competition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n While it might not pop off every corner of the page, the supporting cast in Minnesota looks strong on paper, led by one of the league\u2019s top players in WR\u00a0Justin Jefferson. If\u00a0Jordan Addison\u00a0and\u00a0Jauan Jennings\u00a0stay healthy, that could be a tough trio of pass catchers for defenses to match up against. The offensive line is solid, anchored by LT\u00a0Christian Darrisaw. They\u2019re not the most dynamic at tight end (T.J. Hockenson) or running back (Aaron Jones,\u00a0Jordan Mason), but all in all, it\u2019s a respectable group.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Murray has demonstrated a propensity for making defenses look silly. He was doing it\u00a0not too long ago, albeit too infrequently. If O\u2019Connell helps him unlock peak form, the Vikings could be surprise contenders in the NFC North, and the heat from the QB\u2019s MVP campaign might turn snowmen into puddles across Minneapolis next winter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Rank 7<\/p>\n\n\n\n Baker Mayfield<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tampa Bay Buccaneers \u00b7 QB \u00b7 +4500<\/p>\n\n\n\n It\u2019s easy to forget, given how the Buccaneers face-planted in the second half of last season, but at midseason, Mayfield was\u00a0a leading MVP candidate. Tampa Bay was thriving, dropping 38 points in\u00a0an October win\u00a0over the future Super Bowl-champion Seahawks in Seattle. Injuries — and Mayfield was playing through\u00a0a lot of them, according to now former Bucs great Lavonte David — swallowed the team whole down the stretch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n He\u2019ll be trying to bounce back without his go-to guy, future Hall of Famer\u00a0Mike Evans, who departed for the 49ers in free agency, so it won\u2019t be easy. If Mayfield plays at an elite level despite relying on a young receiving corps led by 2025 first-round pick\u00a0Emeka Egbuka, it\u2019s not hard to imagine the MVP chatter returning. Also, he\u2019ll be working with his fourth different offensive coordinator in his fourth season with the Bucs, but at least there\u2019s some familiarity with new OC Zac Robinson, who was the Rams\u2019 QB coach during Mayfield\u2019s brief stint with the team in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The NFC South, while improved, is still very winnable for Tampa Bay, and Mayfield is only a year removed from throwing 41 TD passes. Better injury luck, which seems likely, could put him in the thick of the race once again. He might even have extra motivation from playing for\u00a0a new contract.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Rank 6<\/p>\n\n\n\n Jalen Hurts<\/p>\n\n\n\n Philadelphia Eagles \u00b7 QB \u00b7 +2800<\/p>\n\n\n\n Philly\u2019s offense went out with a whimper in the second half of last season, with Hurts posting a net negative on dropbacks in Expected Points Added (-11.1) during his final nine games of 2025, including the Eagles’ playoff loss, per Next Gen Stats. The vibes were even worse than those numbers. Given the scrutiny attached to playing quarterback for the Eagles, Hurts will either enter next offseason with questions about his future with the team or be riding high after returning to something resembling the form that made him the MVP runner-up in 2022 and the Super Bowl LIX MVP. The latter of the two scenarios seems well within reach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Hurts is getting something of a fresh start in 2026, with former NFL QB Sean Mannion replacing Kevin Patullo as offensive coordinator after Patullo\u2019s rough lone season as the play-caller.\u00a0A.J. Brown\u00a0was\u00a0shipped to the Patriots\u00a0after he and Hurts\u00a0grew apart, according to Brown. The receiving corps has a much different look, with\u00a0Hollywood Brown,\u00a0Dontayvion Wicks\u00a0and first-round pick\u00a0Makai Lemon\u00a0arriving this offseason. Second-round selection\u00a0Eli Stowers\u00a0gives the offense a freak athlete at tight end. The offensive line remains one of the league\u2019s best. I don\u2019t know if we\u2019ll see peak\u00a0Saquon Barkley\u00a0again, but he still ranked 10th in rushing yards (1,140) even while taking a big step back with the rest of the offense last season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The ingredients are there for Hurts to roar back on a contending team. He\u2019ll have to be much better than the version of him we saw for much of last season, though, in an offense that will have him lining up under center more often.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Rank 5<\/p>\n\n\n\n Sam Darnold<\/p>\n\n\n\n Seattle Seahawks \u00b7 QB \u00b7 +2800<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Darnold\u2019s going to turn into a pumpkin<\/em> narrative was on life support heading into last season\u2019s playoffs, and it probably died for good when he hoisted the Lombardi Trophy on the night of Feb. 8. The former draft bust has now earned Pro Bowl nods in consecutive seasons while leading his teams to a record of 31-7 (.816) in that span (including playoffs). He had a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 5:0 during Seattle\u2019s title run, with nary a fumble lost in the playoffs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n All that\u2019s left for him to prove is he\u2019s the MVP — more than the beneficiary of\u00a0Jaxon Smith-Njigba\u2019s rare ability, a dominant defense and potent running game, even though such back-handed characterizations of Darnold\u2019s contributions in 2025 were myopic anyway. He might be asked to carry an even greater chunk of the offensive load, with\u00a0Kenneth Walker III\u00a0departing in free agency and\u00a0Zach Charbonnet\u00a0working his way back from an ACL tear suffered in January\u2019s Divisional Round win over the 49ers. If he proves up to the challenge and the Seahawks are contending for a second straight crown in the league\u2019s best division, it would only make sense if serious MVP buzz followed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Rank 4<\/p>\n\n\n\n Jayden Daniels<\/p>\n\n\n\n Washington Commanders \u00b7 QB \u00b7 +2000<\/p>\n\n\n\n What a difference a year makes. Last summer, the oddsmakers had Daniels much closer to the top of the board at MVP. The vibes were off the charts coming off Washington\u2019s surprise run to the NFC Championship Game, with Daniels winning the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.<\/p>\n\n\n\n After an injury-plagued 2025 season, everyone\u2019s waiting to see how he will get off the mat. Washington\u2019s running a new offense coordinated by 30-year-old former QB David Blough, who will ask Daniels to take more snaps from under center. I won\u2019t blame the third-year passer if the burden feels heavy. After the Commanders were very aggressive in adding support for him last offseason — trading for\u00a0Laremy Tunsil\u00a0and\u00a0Deebo Samuel\u00a0— this year\u2019s moves were far less splashy. At the moment, third-round pick\u00a0Antonio Williams\u00a0is the most notable addition to the receiving corps, which is badly in need of more juice opposite\u00a0Terry McLaurin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I worry that the first three games — at Eagles, at Cowboys, vs. Seahawks — could derail Daniels and Co. before we reach October, but he\u2019s surprised us before. When healthy, he has the potential to be one of the most electric playmakers in the game. If the Commanders are playoff contenders come December, it will be because Daniels is playing out of his mind.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Rank 3<\/p>\n\n\n\n Jared Goff<\/p>\n\n\n\n Detroit Lions \u00b7 QB \u00b7 +3500<\/p>\n\n\n\n I\u2019m a bit surprised there\u2019s not more MVP love for Goff right now. Yes, he plays in one of the league\u2019s toughest divisions and the Lions\u2019 rough second half of the 2025 season is still fresh in our minds, but he\u2019s also the only quarterback to rank among the top five in EPA in each of the last four seasons. He finished fifth in the MVP voting in 2024 and has made the Pro Bowl in three of the past four seasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n His game isn\u2019t built on sizzling highlights, but he\u2019s in a rare category when it comes to consistently providing top-tier production. HIs MVP campaign will go as the Lions go, and with a\u00a0very manageable schedule, I like Detroit\u2019s chances to bounce back.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Nothing will be more critical in determining Goff and the Lions\u2019 success than the play of the new-look offensive line, with All-Pro\u00a0Penei Sewell\u00a0flipping from right to left tackle, free-agent signee\u00a0Cade Mays\u00a0stepping in at center and first-round pick\u00a0Blake Miller\u00a0likely to replace Sewell on the right side. Just take a look at how Goff has fared when pressured versus when he has time to throw since joining the Lions in 2022, per Next Gen Stats:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Goff has the weaponry to make things happen. With clean pockets, he should rack up big numbers connecting with\u00a0Amon-Ra St. Brown,\u00a0Jameson Williams,\u00a0Isaac TeSlaa,\u00a0Sam LaPorta\u00a0and\u00a0Jahmyr Gibbs. In fact, with\u00a0David Montgomery\u00a0now in Houston, Gibbs could be in for a career year that ultimately diminishes Goff\u2019s MVP standing, but this is still a quarterback\u2019s award.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Rank 2<\/p>\n\n\n\n Trevor Lawrence<\/p>\n\n\n\n Jacksonville Jaguars \u00b7 QB \u00b7 +2200<\/p>\n\n\n\n One could argue Lawrence is not a true<\/em> sleeper for the award, since he finished fifth in the MVP voting last season. The reason he qualifies is because the oddsmakers don\u2019t seem bullish on his chances after watching what has transpired in Jacksonville this offseason.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I\u2019m presuming the lack of buzz stems from the Jaguars\u2019 inactivity in free agency and perceptions that the team might have overachieved in Year 1 under Liam Coen. The biggest additions on offense were RB\u00a0Chris Rodriguez Jr.\u00a0(career high of 500 rushing yards) and second-round TE\u00a0Nate Boerkircher, who made 38 catches in his five college seasons. Also, Lawrence waved goodbye to RB\u00a0Travis Etienne, his teammate since their days at Clemson, and while it\u2019s unclear what exactly\u00a0Travis Hunter\u2019s role will entail as he\u00a0returns from injury, general manager James Gladstone has said the 2025 first-rounder will be spending\u00a0more time on defense in 2026. There are still quality pieces around the QB — and a bounce-back year by\u00a0Brian Thomas Jr.\u00a0would make them a lot more interesting — but it\u2019s going to take development from Lawrence and some skill-position players to put him squarely in the MVP conversation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n He\u2019s coming off his best season, and it\u2019s entirely possible a second year in Coen\u2019s system will bring out an even better version in a division Jacksonville has proven it can win, which is why I\u2019m ranking him highly on this list.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Rank 1<\/p>\n\n\n\n Brock Purdy<\/p>\n\n\n\n San Francisco 49ers \u00b7 QB \u00b7 +2000<\/p>\n\n\n\n Unlike every other player on this list, Purdy gets to enjoy the stability of playing in the same offensive system for the fifth consecutive season, with one of the best in the business, Kyle Shanahan, at the helm. In fact, aside from Purdy and Trevor Lawrence, everyone else on the list has a new offensive coordinator this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Continuity alone does not make an MVP candidate, though. Purdy knows that, having finished fourth in the MVP voting in his first season as the team\u2019s full-time starter (2023). What\u2019s different this year is the 49ers made moves to give Purdy what could be the best receiving corps he\u2019s ever had. Signing future Hall of Famer Mike Evans was the blockbuster acquisition, but San Francisco also brought in a former 1,000-yard receiver in\u00a0Christian Kirk\u00a0and clearly has high hopes for second-round pick\u00a0De\u2019Zhaun Stribling, who has the size\/speed combination to make those who believe he was drafted too early (No. 33 overall) eat their words. If 2024 first-round pick\u00a0Ricky Pearsall\u00a0breaks out, Shanahan could have an embarrassment of riches.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Purdy still has one of the league\u2019s better offensive lines blocking for him, and maybe his most talented pass-catching weapon of all in RB\u00a0Christian McCaffrey. It\u2019s worth monitoring how TE\u00a0George Kittle\u00a0fares as he makes his way back from an Achilles tear, but backup\u00a0Jake Tonges\u00a0performed well when he received opportunities last season.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n Now, navigating a schedule that includes two international trips and seven games against teams that made the playoffs last year will not be easy. Most people probably have the 49ers as the third-best team in their division, with the reigning-champion Seahawks and Super Bowl favorite Rams in the NFC West. If Purdy can lead his team through that gauntlet and come out the other end as the QB1 of a leading contender, he should have a powerful narrative MVP voters can embrace. The guy knows how to win games, with a 30-15 record as a starter in his four NFL seasons, and I can\u2019t wait to see what he can do after injuries limited him to nine games last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" It’s the dog days of guessing season with the start of real football still months away, so I’m turning my attention to dark horses in the MVP race. The conversation must be dominated by one position if we’re going to be realistic. 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