Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. All fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, as well as any breaking news that might impact today’s MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball buzz.
STARTING PITCHERS FOR MONDAY
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN’s standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher’s roster percentage in ESPN leagues. W%: The individual starting pitcher’s win probability using ESPN projections. IP: Projected innings pitched. H+BB: Projected hits plus walks allowed. ER: Projected earned runs allowed. K: Projected strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.
| FPTS | Team | Pitcher | T | Opp | Rst% | W% | IP | H+BB | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.8 |  | Zack Wheeler | R | MIA | 97.5% | 53% | 6.5 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 7.1 |
| 13.4 |  | Chase Burns | R | NYM | 96.8% | 46% | 6.1 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 7.3 |
| 11.5 |  | Shota Imanaga | L | COL | 78.5% | 38% | 5.4 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 5.5 |
| 11.2 |  | Troy Melton | R | @HOU | 17.2% | 36% | 5.8 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 5.6 |
| 11.1 |  | Dustin May | R | SD | 12.7% | 40% | 6.2 | 7.8 | 2.6 | 5.4 |
| 10.0 |  | Ryne Nelson | R | LAA | 9.9% | 33% | 6.0 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 5.7 |
| 9.6 |  | Kai-Wei Teng | R | DET | 2.8% | 32% | 5.5 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 5.6 |
| 9.1 |  | Walbert Urena | R | @ARI | 12.6% | 37% | 6.0 | 8.5 | 2.8 | 5.2 |
| 8.9 |  | Andrew Alvarez | L | KC | 0.6% | 39% | 5.2 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 4.5 |
| 8.3 |  | MacKenzie Gore | L | MIN | 58.1% | 38% | 5.4 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 5.7 |
| 8.3 |  | Eric Lauer | L | TB | 2.1% | 28% | 5.0 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 4.5 |
| 7.7 |  | Nick Martinez | R | @LAD | 54.6% | 19% | 4.8 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 3.9 |
| 7.3 |  | Lucas Giolito | R | @STL | 3.2% | 26% | 5.0 | 7.0 | 2.3 | 4.1 |
| 5.5 |  | Michael Lorenzen | R | @CHC | 0.4% | 14% | 4.7 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 4.2 |
| 5.0 |  | Ryan Gusto | R | @PHI | 0.1% | 3% | 3.1 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 2.9 |
| 4.3 |  | J.T. Ginn | R | PIT | 23.4% | 25% | 5.0 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 4.9 |
| 2.8 |  | Jared Jones | R | @ATH | 17.4% | 15% | 4.3 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 4.6 |
 | TBD | @CIN | 0.0% | 0% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
 | TBD | @TEX | 0.0% | 0% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
 | TBD | @WSH | 0.0% | 0% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Pitchers to stream on Monday
- Dustin May continues to display improved control. He has issued more than two walks just once all season, a four-walk effort against the Kansas City Royals last month. His 4.22 ERA is pegged about half a run too high by the associated estimators. He begins the fantasy week with a favorable home matchup when the St. Louis Cardinals host the San Diego Padres. May faces a lineup with the fourth-lowest wOBA facing right-handers, fueled by an above-average strikeout rate and below-average walk and home run rates.
- The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians were rained out on Sunday. Casey Mize was set to come off the 15-day IL to start for the Tigers, but now he’ll be activated before Wednesday’s tilt with the Houston Astros, keeping Troy Melton on schedule for the series opener. He has pitched well since coming off the 60-day IL due to a right elbow strain. His last outing was a mixed bag as he fanned five without issuing any walks in five frames, but he yielded eight hits — including four solo homers — accounting for all four Minnesota Twins runs. Next up is a road date in Daikin Park, where the Astros have recorded the fourth-lowest home wOBA against right-handed pitching.
- Before his last start, Ryne Nelson was on a roll, recording five quality starts in six outings. However, he struggled in South Beach, yielding seven runs in four innings to the Miami Marlins. The Arizona Diamondbacks are home against the Los Angeles Angels, giving Nelson a great opportunity to get back on track when facing a below-average lineup in a pitcher’s park.
Pitchers to avoid on Monday
- It seemed like the perfect fit when Nick Martinez signed with the Tampa Bay Rays. He’s a versatile arm capable of filling many roles, and there isn’t a team better suited to use him in the right situation. It turned out the role is a traditional starter, pitching in that capacity in all 13 of his outings. Martinez sports a modest 13.8% strikeout rate but gets away with it because of elite command and control. Even so, his lack of dominance leaves Martinez vulnerable to a top offense and he’s slated to face the Los Angeles Dodgers, who lead the league in runs per game. Trust Martinez when he’s squaring off with less potent lineups; avoid him against the Dodgers.
Hitters to stream on Monday
- As a team, the Pittsburgh Pirates have struggled against right-handed pitching, but they have a few left-handers who are dangerous with the platoon edge, especially in a hitter-friendly environment like Sutter Health Park. The Athletics rotation exhibits extreme splits, led by J.T. Ginn posting a 4.70 ERA at home, compared to a 1.99 road mark. Pirates’ lefties Spencer Horwitz, Ryan O’Hearn and Tyler Callihan are candidates to fortify a Monday lineup on an abbreviated seven-game slate.
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